The Fated Farewell
03/31/2022
By: Jeff Yoder
Inside Duke vs. Carolina — The Final Four Matchup Ordained by Basketball Gods
If basketball had a God, he’s smiling and pulling strings as he welcomes Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski into hoops heaven with a monumental moment. Coach K’s farewell season has been full of ups and downs for his young Duke roster, but a trip to the Final Four, and a date with North Carolina, is the coronation basketball fans needed. Here’s a look at just how unbelievable this Saturday’s Final Four clash really is…
The 1st Dance of Tobacco Road
Saturday’s game is the first-ever meeting between the Blue Devils and Tar Heels in NCAA Tournament history. That’s hard to believe considering both schools rank top-five all-time in NCAA Tournament appearances. With a combined 95 tourney trips, 334 tournament games and 36 Final Fours (now 38), this is the first time they’ll meet in the Big Dance.
The Reason Why?
The NCAA Tournament bracket has a few underlying rules that have kept Duke and UNC from butting heads. Namely, the top four teams selected from each power conference are placed in different regions. Historically, that means Duke and Carolina — often top-4 teams in the ACC — would frequently be separated in the bracket until reaching the Final Four. Both teams did make runs to the same Final Four in 1991, but they were on opposite sides in the semifinal before UNC lost to Kansas and Duke beat UNLV, then won it all. That was Coach K’s first of five titles.
The Odds of Duke-v-Carolina
Since the tournament field expanded to 64/68 teams (1985), 2-seeds reach the Final Four 20.8% of the time while 8-seeds have just a 3.6% chance. Only twice has an 8-seed met a 2-seed in the Final Four, and the 8-seed won both meetings: #8 Kentucky defeated #2 Wisconsin in 2014, and #8 Villanova beat #2 Memphis State in 1985 before winning it all. That’s only two 2-vs-8 meetings in 111 total Final Four matchups since ‘85 — 0.018 percent.
The Historic Clash (By the Numbers)
Carolina holds the historical edge in almost every category, but Duke has been the more dominant power in recent history with Coach K claiming all of Duke’s titles (5), and all but three Final Fours (13 total) — the most Final Fours for any head coach in NCAA history.
Overall Rivalry (Head-to-Head)
UNC: 142 Wins
Duke: 115 Wins
ACC Championships
UNC: 50
Duke: 40
NCAA Tournament Appearances
UNC: 51
Duke: 44
NCAA Tournament Wins
UNC: 130
Duke: 118
NCAA Final Fours
UNC: 20
Duke: 16
NCAA National Championships
UNC: 6
Duke: 5
Duke vs. Carolina could be Coach K’s final game or the penultimate step towards a sixth national championship. The Tar Heels spoiled senior night in Durham, but the stage is set for the greatest Final Four clash of all-time. It’s only fitting that Coach K’s last dance would yield the first dance that featured Duke-Carolina with title implications. Game on.
#2 Duke vs. #8 North Carolina
(Saturday, 8:49 pm, TBS)
Additional Storylines
FOX Sports: Duke vs. Carolina: A Final Four Showdown for the Ages
SI: With Final Four in Hand, Coach K & Duke Have Truly Epic Ending Within Reach
CBS Sports: How Duke, North Carolina’s Vastly Different Coaching Transitions Led Both to New Orleans
Yahoo! Sports: Why Duke & North Carolina Have Never Met in the Tournament — Until Now
Photo: Lance King / Getty Images