Guide to the Madness 🏀

03/21/2024

By: Jeff Yoder

Everything You Need to Know for the NCAA Tournament’s 1st & 2nd Round (Players, Coaches, Cinderellas & More)

It’s finally time. The build-up is over. Madness has come.

Every sports season operates with its own pace, but March brings, without a doubt, the most unique event on the sports calendar. It’s three weeks of non-stop basketball to crown a champion via the largest, single-elimination tournament in all of sports. Despite the tradition and history — now 39 years since the tournament expanded to 64+ teams — every bracket is different. We never saw a 16-seed beat a 1-seed until 2018. Now, we’ve seen two. Each team and each seed carries the weight of its own history. UConn, an illustrious program and the defending champs. Houston, a dynamic roster and a storied program. Purdue, a powerhouse that breeds big men and can’t seem to escape upsets. North Carolina, perhaps the biggest blue blood of all, missed the tournament completely in 2023. Those are just the 1-seeds, and there are 60 more stories each their own. So here we go. These are the top players, coaches, seeds, and Cinderellas to watch for in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Top Players to Watch

There are so many great players in this year’s bracket, but I’ve got my eye on five in particular. UConn has a bunch of horses, and they’re kind of a full-team juggernaut. So we’ll start elsewhere. Dalton Knecht (Tennessee) might be the best pure scorer in the entire tournament. We’re talking Steph Curry-like moments ahead. The Vols will go as far as Knecht can shoot. You’re also probably familiar with Zach Edey (Purdue). He’s the reigning National Player of the Year, and he’s a walking double-double at 7-foot-4. There are three guards who could make or break the tourney, too. RJ Davis (UNC), Jamal Shead (Houston), and Caleb Love (Arizona) are bonafide studs.

Top Coaches to Watch

The most seasoned coaches in the tourney are frequently the most underestimated, but they know what it takes to win in March regardless of their team’s seeds. Tom Izzo (Michigan State, 9-seed) and Mark Few (Gonzaga, 5-seed) are two coaches you never expect to have an early exit, but I did just the opposite in my bracket. I penned Mississippi State past the Spartans and 12-seed McNeese to stun the Zags. The three top-seeded coaches will have the most pressure and highest expectations — Dan Hurley (UConn), Kelvin Sampson (Houston) and Matt Painter (Purdue) — but Painter is truly in a critical moment after three recent upsets early in the last four tournaments. Purdue can’t afford another early exit.

Best Cinderella Candidates

Anyone can become Cinderella in March, if the slipper fits. If I were a gambling man, my money is on any number of low-seeded teams from the Midwest Region. The 8-9 matchup features Utah State and TCU, and both could give 1-seed Purdue a run for their money in the second round. Oregon (11) is hardly a Cinderella. They won the Pac-12 tournament. Then, there’s 12-seed McNeese, who’s won 23 of their last 24 games, and they can fill it (80.4 ppg). Did we forget to mention that Saint Peter’s is the 15-seed in that region? Fear the Peacocks. If Cinderella exists, she’s in the Midwest. (Editor’s Cinderella Pick: #11 Oregon & #12 McNeese to the Sweet 16)

11-seeds are the best bet for Cinderella (see below). The 11s actually have a higher win percentage than 9s and 10s, and they have more Final Four trips than 9s and 10s, combined. This year’s 11-seeds are Oregon, New Mexico, Duquesne and NC State.

Success by Seed (Stats to Know)

1-Seeds: .796 Win % (25 Champions)

2-Seeds: .706 Win % (5 Champions)

3-Seeds: .655 Win % (4 Champions)

4-Seeds: .610 Win % (2 Champions)

5-Seeds: .536 Win % (No Champions)

6-Seeds: .514 Win % (1 Champion)

7-Seeds: .473 Win % (1 Champion)

8-Seeds: .421 Win % (1 Champion)

9-Seeds: .379 Win % (0 Champs, 2 Final Fours)

10-Seeds: .379 Win % (0 Champs, 1 Final Four)

11-Seeds: .392 Win % (0 Champs, 5 Final Fours)