Clinching Chaos: Week 18 Scenarios

01/05/2024

By: Jeff Yoder

Who’s In? Who’s Out? And Who Needs Whose Help in Unprecedented Week 18?

Think Week 18 is just another weekend of football? Think again. A whopping 20 of the NFL’s 32 teams are still postseason-eligible entering the final week of the regular season. That ties the NFL record set in 2006 — and that year was shortened due to a strike. What you’re about to witness on Saturday and Sunday is unlike anything seen before in the NFL’s Super Bowl era. Nine teams have clinched while 11 squads enter the weekend with their fates up in the air… Eleven! That means 1/3 of the league hinges on an 11th-hour miracle scenario. Lucky for you, we cracked the codes on every possible outcome. Eleven squads. Five open spots. Dozens of potential playoff brackets. Let’s crunch some numbers.

Who’s In?

AFC: Ravens (13-3)

AFC: Dolphins (11-5)

AFC: Chiefs (10-6)

AFC: Browns (11-5)

NFC: 49ers (12-4)

NFC: Cowboys (11-5)

NFC: Lions (11-5)

NFC: Eagles (11-5)

NFC: Rams (9-7)

Available Playoff Spots

AFC: 3 Open

NFC: 2 Open

AFC Clinching Scenarios

(5 Teams, 3 Spots)

Bills (10-6) → 87% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Dolphins (OR) Losses by Steelers (OR) Jaguars

*Bills Can Win AFC East and No. 2 Seed or Miss the Playoffs Entirely

Jaguars (9-7) → 68% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Titans (OR) Loss by Steelers (AND) Colts-Texans Doesn’t End in Tie

Colts (9-7) → 46% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Texans (OR) Losses by Steelers (AND) Jaguars

Texans (9-7) → 53% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Colts (AND) Losses by Jaguars (OR) Steelers

Steelers (9-7) → 46% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Ravens (AND) Losses by Bills (OR) Jaguars

*Remember: The Ravens are resting their starters

NFC Clinching Scenarios

(6 Teams, 2 Spots)

Buccaneers (8-8) → 63% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Panthers (NFC South Champs)

Packers (8-8) → 63% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Bears (OR) Losses by Seahawks (AND) Either Saints or Bucs

Seahawks (8-8) → 25% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Cardinals (AND) Losses by Packers (AND) Either Saints or Bucs

Saints (8-8) → 31% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Falcons (AND) Loss by Bucs (OR) Losses by Seahawks (AND) Packers

Falcons (7-9) → 14% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Saints (AND) Loss by Bucs

Vikings (7-9) → 4% Playoff Probability

In With Win Over Lions (AND) Losses by Seahawks (AND) Either Saints or Bucs

Got all that? We knew you could handle it. No matter how you spin it (or how we try to make sense of all the potential outcomes), you can simply look at the playoff seeding and decipher if your team needs a victory this weekend, then math out who else to root for. A lot can change in the next 72 hours. We’ll know the playoffs by Monday. Here are the games that will determine who’s in and who’s out.

Week 18 Games With Playoff Implications

Steelers at Ravens (Sat. 4:30 pm ET, ESPN)

Texans at Colts (Sat. 8:15 pm ET, ESPN)

Buccaneers at Panthers (Sun. 1:00 pm ET, FOX)

Vikings at Lions (Sun. 1:00 pm ET, FOX)

Falcons at Saints (Sun. 1:00 pm ET, CBS)
Jaguars at Titans (Sun. 1:00 pm ET, CBS)

Seahawks at Cardinals (Sun. 4:25 pm ET, FOX)

Bears at Packers (Sun. 4:25 pm ET, CBS)

Bills at Dolphins (Sun. 8:20 pm ET, NBC)

SI: Teams Resting Starters, Fighting for Seeding in Week 18 Causes Chaos for Bettors

FTW: Patrick Mahomes & Lamar Jackson: Which Teams Are Resting Starters in Week 18?

Image via Joe Stella / Media Mobilize